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@TheRealNasa00
@TheRealNasa00
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Avg. peak vs avg. fade
Average return when a call peaks vs fades — and how long each takes.
How we score
Avg. peak
+50%
~129 days
avg. time to first peak
414
peaked
posted
~129 days
+50%
Avg. fade
-34%
~103 days
avg. time to first fade
429
faded
posted
~103 days
-34%
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post, and how it compares to what they average when a call peaks and when it fades.
All
100
Peaked
32
Faded
38
Live
30
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$
SKHY
$SKHY You know what i'm going to say right ? If 150 holds and top of weekly wedge can break think a move up into 165-170 is coming. Memory did well today and this push into lwh was nice. if 150 holds / 156 breaks looking at a carbon copy of $spcx $arm $rddt $crwv etc . You catch my drift ? Maybe im dumb.
Peaked
bull
+28.6%
69d
Aug 12
$
DRAM
$DRAM: Most important setup in the market into $SNDK / $WDC er Tech lagging as es / spx made new ath . NQ is 5% off and a chunk of that is memory / chips lagging not faang anymore. If 50 holds this could be a sympathy trade into those sndk / wdc prints. SKHY and others much pricier imo
Peaked
bull
+15.9%
77d
Aug 4
$
LLY
$LLY Depending on tech and how rotations go / continue to go this is one to keep watching imo. If 1186-1200 hold (prev ath) not muhc in the way of ath at 1240 and above 1300 imo The flag started on Trump rumors he is 1st person taking reta...unconfirmed but stock is still staying up here post rumor. Makes you wonder. If that prev ath holds 1250 or 1300c in play imo.
Peaked
bull
+5.6%
107d
Jul 5
$
LLY
Sent yday https://t.co/Ij39OQ0wM7
Peaked
bull
+6.1%
116d
Jun 26
$
NFLX
$NFLX Back to those yearly lows with earnings on july 16th Would watch and see how this 75 zone holds imo If defends yearly lows could see a bid into er. If happens cons are cheap enough where you could make free into earnings. Been a dog all year but last time it was here had a nice rally. worth watching imo. Risk is pretty simple vs yearly lows.
Peaked
bull
+6.9%
121d
Jun 21
$
AMKR
$AMKR OSAT handling the Rubin . us hq also . Rubin is huge and complex packaging so every wafer tsm cant pack ase or AMKR will get . https://t.co/bZ99noFxrQ
Peaked
bull
+25.3%
140d
Jun 2
$
ARM
$ARM Pretty crazy weekly setup into NVDA earnings..... https://t.co/k3G68QD4p7
Peaked
bull
+96.9%
154d
May 19
$
HPE
$HPE (Might be stupid) Seems to be overlooked as of now within the AI, memory, and photonics trade. HPE is an old dog that just made a new ATH and fits right into the next AI bottleneck. It's a secondary derivative to this trade. Phase 1 was chips and memory and Phase 2 is the system level bottleneck, which is how data is stored, and storage is becoming the next major issue. HPE fits this build well and it is an established name with a solid book and customers including Nvidia and others. HPE built the enterprise grade object storage system designed specifically for this problem. The Alletra Storage MP X10000 is the first Nvidia certified object based storage platform for enterprise AI. On top of this, the Juniper acquisition puts them right into networking to reduce memory cost inflation. If 30 can hold and theme stays hot why not see an old dog run vs the pre rev spec names ? Just a thought . Old yeller ?
Peaked
bull
+75.1%
160d
May 13
$
HIMS
$HIMS BUILDING OUT A NICE FLAG ON THE DAILY RIGHT UNDER THE 200 DAY. IT HAS HAD A REALLY NICE PUSH UP OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS AND IS NOW CONSOLIDATING. THE IDEA HERE WOULD BE TO TRADE OFF THIS 30–32 ZONE. WITH 33% SHORT FLOAT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.ALSO NOTE NVO NEWS FRIDAY + VOL THAT HIT THAT ON FRIDAY. https://t.co/x1MWjsMkf6
Peaked
bull
+25.3%
177d
Apr 26
$
SMH
$SMH vs $IGV A pair trade that many are getting eyes on now. Software vs Chips . If you think ai kills SaaS it means chips / compute needs are much larger. Hence the inverse of the two etfs. When you kill the software layer you do not kill the compute layer. you actually expand it. So if you think SaaS becomes obsolete your thinking would be chips / memory will go higher. If you think SaaS sell is overblown given their earnings growth and wont disappear then chip needs may not be as great Saas expected and SaaS companies regain some momentum. Hence the pair trade many are noticing now. $SPY
Peaked
bull
+47.1%
187d
Apr 16
$
TLT
$TLT Talk about this in depth on the Substack below , but something I am watching into this cpi print is tlt. How will odds of a cut / hike shift after this 1% spike in inflation ? CPI ↑ → Hike odds ↑ → Yields ↑ → TLT ↓ Worth watching imo incase base case on cuts / hikes shift after the print. 4/17 chain makes sense for opex . Also note IV on tlt is sitting at roughly 11.9% with an iv rank somewhere between 19 and 32%. that is near the low end of the past year. Does not seem to be priced in at all imo.
Peaked
bear
+4%
198d
Apr 5
$
SMCI
$SMCI SMCI: COILED TIGHT OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AS IT HAS BEEN PINNED TO THIS 30-35 ZONE SINCE NOV OF LAST YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH NVDA GTC EVENT ON GOING AND DAY 2 FOCUSED ON AI / DATA CENTERS I THINK SMCI FITS INTO THIS MOLD PRETTY WELL. THE CAIN IS LOADED TO THE GILLS WITH THE CALL SIDE SEEING BIDS OUT INTO THE 38C . THE ONE THING TO NOTE IS SINCE ITS OPEX THERE IS A LOT OF O.I HERE. WANT TO SEE IF THESE ARE BUYS OR SELLS INTO OPEN. IF BUYS THESE 33C SEEM INTERESTING TO ME . IF 30 HOLDS WOULD THINK 33-35 IS IN PLAY. MAIN THESIS HERE : SMCI builds the physical AI servers that hold NVIDIA GPUs. NVIDIA → GPUs SMCI → AI servers / racks AVGO / MRVL → networking chips TSM → manufacturing MU / Hynix → memory more GPU racks more liquid cooling more AI servers THAT IS THE STACK. SMCI A TOP WATCH INTO DAY 2 AS IT HAS BEEN COILED FOR MONTHS. A 30 HOLD OR BREAK OF HOD AND THIS CAN GET SOME LEGS IMO.
Peaked
bull
+57.5%
218d
Mar 16
$
WEAT
$MOS MIDDLE EAST SHIPPING RISK → HIGHER ENERGY PRICES + TIGHTER FERTILIZER SUPPLY → HIGHER FERTILIZER PRICES AND STRONGER MARGINS. Watching with flow on $WEAT today (UNSULLIED cc) https://t.co/nizd7OSqFr
Peaked
bull
+14%
229d
Mar 5
$
COST
$COST : IV FLUSH IDEA Implied +/- 2.37% , Currently flat EPS / REV sslight beats , Similar print to TGT/WMT Weekly is coiled after being sideways for the last month and building out a flag near 1k Idea : pivot 975 if 975 holds look up via 1000c for move into ylod and possible flag break into 1014 If 975 can not hold the 200 day is near 944 and 950p would be in play imo.
Peaked
bull
+11.5%
229d
Mar 5
$
ORCL
$ORCL Into NVDA er I don't mind watching orcl and those 150s they hammered today to the tune of 12.5k vol / 4.2k o.i I think they are banking on one of two things: ORCL being a primary cloud provider for NVIDIA's AI technology , and two software selloff being overblown (headline driven). If orcl wants to bounce it wouldn't be a bad spot after holding feb lows and the trend dating back to 10/22' Idea would be lod holds , reclaim 146 ,and look for 150c if vol stays there for possible sympathy trade into nvda print. (Or orcl just sucks and is useless since we can vibe code a new orcl)
Peaked
bull
+70.4%
238d
Feb 24
$
AMD
$AMD The gift that keeps giving . Closed right at 200 after consolidating all week while it rec The top of oct 2025 gap. With nvda er this week and it at a major psych level worth having eyes on imo. If 200-202 can hold and nvda moves higher should see a push back into er gap near 217 via 215c imo if 202 can not reclaim and 200 breaks ahead of nvda er not much until the 200 day and recent lows via 190p. Must watch into wed imo.
Peaked
bull
+190.2%
240d
Feb 22
$
GME
$GME With Ryan Cohen tweeting up a storm , Burry long , and an imminent move with the cash worth watching imo. Sitting right below the june 2025 Gap down and bouncing of the 200day If 200 day holds and news hits wire could see a push up into 25+ imo Hate to watch it but daily isn't horrible. March 20th expiration seems to be most active chain. 25 / 30c.
Peaked
bull
+11.1%
244d
Feb 18
$
AMD
$AMD 200 day bounce & Closed above that OCT gap. Last time Posted off this zone saw 9 green days in a row and a move into 268(ath) . We are now back at the bottom of the range. Looking to trade vs / off this 200-202 area once again. https://t.co/MkMZl2AxvE https://t.co/nnAJa8wREN
Peaked
bull
+178.7%
254d
Feb 8
$
OSCR
$OSCR: This could be a sleeper that gets hit by the following news, "trump admin proposing flat rates for medicare". after hours this shocked names like unh, hum, and cvs as they all fell 5-10%. oscr is not immune to this as they see a large % of rev from aca and medicare advantage plans. imo they are more exposed then most of these major names like unh and cvs but yet to falter. idea is to see if 15 holds or not. if 15 breaks daily bear flag plays out with room into 12.96 area. idea invalid above 16.44 (200 day)
Peaked
bear
+30.9%
267d
Jan 26
$
AVGO
$AVGO Prettier similar setup to amd last week imo as it retest gap up from sept earnings. Looking to trade this vs the 330 zone If 330 holds back into ylod-354.51 If 330 can not hold the gap fill begins with 307 being 200 day and target below. That would be opposite of amd versus the gap. However, with markets weakness that could be fun to see / trade imo.
Peaked
bull
+46.8%
272d
Jan 21
$
MRK
$MRK Dow names performing well + healthcare looking good. Barring any iran news could be something to watch imo as it runs into lwh. Note : unsure why but 1/30/26' 113c have 26k o.i rest of chain is barren. Interested in this if ylod holds / flag tries to push up. https://t.co/01BzkZxTjw
Peaked
bull
+11.8%
279d
Jan 14
$
COIN
$COIN DO OR DIE IMO Sitting at recent lows / er gap up from May. 231 is spot to defend for a push up into the ema and above. However, if btc decides to work down into 80k I would think this breaks 231 pivot and flushes into that gap. Big spot and likely a viable trade soon.
Peaked
bear
+39.6%
295d
Dec 29
$
VALE
$VALE Something I am watching into that 1/16 opex date with copper pushing ath. If copper pushes through or gets love like slv after gc made that high could argue copper is silvers little brother here. in other words people who missed gold went silver, those who missed silver run to copper. 13.71 BREAKS AND ILL DABBLE. I know mainly iron but has copper division. FCX and others had strong moves friday this did not. 15c for jan opex is what id trade if copper breaks out personally. 149k o.i stashed there.
Peaked
bull
+32.5%
296d
Dec 28
$
TSM
$TSM Interesting weekly as it sits at lwh and flagging. 12/19 Chain is the most interesting to me if they figure out tsm is the manufacture for $googl fabs (tpu's) if daily ema holds near 287 will look to trade this into eoy , 300-ath is above if ema holds imo. Food for thought , need headlines to circulate for idea to work and people to think critically on chain . Otherwise trading Taiwan stonks.
Peaked
bull
+33.4%
324d
Nov 30
$
XOM
$XOM Watching this daily as it sits at the top of this range it has been stuck in all year. Held the ema today , but oil names all rejected. Ide is to see if ylod holds or not at 116.6 if ylod holds will look to trade 1120c up into recent highs. If ylod breaks and oil names roll , 115p for backtest of breakout cvx, oxy , etc all had tough days but this daily is still pretty vs many names out there as of now imo.
Peaked
bull
+46.7%
337d
Nov 17
$
COIN
$COIN Into eow a top watch for me as btc sits right at 100k in a bear flag. Coin is at a massive support from june , and it seems like do or die imo. EOW makes this tradeable , and also helps gauge sentiment on spec / growth names imo If 290s break here 280-275p in play. Can also watch for a 300 rej for downside. If this massive support holds and btc defneds 300-310c work up imo for move into ylod. 290s hold and downside limited into eow. 300-ylod rej and offer possible short on backtest imo.
Peaked
bear
+52.2%
348d
Nov 6
$
UPS
$UPS Nice peg and still sitting in some c after initial move up from covid lows. Need the 200ma reclaimed around 100 or this loses its steam imo. 98 is wick down from two earnings ago , if that breaks should see 200ma reclaimed and a larger push up imo. If invalidates flag or breaks ema I will get out of position personally.
Peaked
bull
+26.6%
352d
Nov 2
$
OPEN
$OPEN Pains me to say it but daily looks good as this wedge develops. Also note the chain being lit up with the 8.5c standing out with 50k vol vs 15k o.i If the ema can hold around 7 or so would think the 8 weeks of consolidation could push it up into lwh and if breaks bigger move .
Peaked
bull
+20.6%
352d
Nov 2
$
DKNG
$DKNG Lot of sell vol accumulating on this daily bear flag. Lot of other odds makers out there for betting now + some short reports sparking concerns. Worth watching incase 37.50 isnt reclaimed. Break below and should see 30 quick imo. https://t.co/6NtrQy3Kl8
Peaked
bear
+15.3%
378d
Oct 7
$
AAPL
$AAPL 250 is the 8ema spot to hold lwh near 257.50 spot to break to push into ath Busy week for this to unfold https://t.co/7b7xAsiGVh https://t.co/NJqWh7kU1S
Peaked
bull
+12.1%
387d
Sep 28
$
AAPL
$AAPL Running into weekly highs / flagging. If this 257 area can break ath right there for the taking If weekly highs rej just work back into 250 Likely dictates next move on indices imo https://t.co/yyEtdFYPSX
Peaked
bull
+11.5%
390d
Sep 25
$
MU
$MU : IV FLUSH IDEA IMPLIED +/- 8.55% , CURRENTLY +2.5% EPS + REV BEAT REALLY SOLID Q ALL AROUND IMO. WANT TO USE 165 AS THE PIVOT , IF THIS CAN HOLD 175C WILL BE MY GO TO FOR A PUSH THROUGH ATH NEAR 171. IF 171 CAN NOT BREAK OR 165 GIVES ID USE 160P FOR DOWNSIDE BACK INTO THE 8EMA
Peaked
bull
+177.8%
392d
Sep 23
showing 32 — keep scrolling
