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@asklivermore
@asklivermore
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Avg. peak vs avg. fade
Average return when a call peaks vs fades — and how long each takes.
How we score
Avg. peak
+53%
~52 days
avg. time to first peak
242
peaked
posted
~52 days
+53%
Avg. fade
-27%
~61 days
avg. time to first fade
161
faded
posted
~61 days
-27%
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post, and how it compares to what they average when a call peaks and when it fades.
All
100
Peaked
24
Faded
10
Live
66
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$
SMH
Hot takes across the top semiconductor stocks. 1. $NVDA - I'm already in NVIDIA. But it is NOT at its historical fair value prices or discounted levels right now in my opinion. I will buy in the future if it dips closer to my weekly moving averages. I do NOT buy when price is a premium. I buy at fair value, or discounted areas. I will continue to hold my shares, but won't be adding more exposure. 2. $AVGO - coming down to better fair value levels. 30% drop from its all-time highs. I would be okay buying here, and then buying more if it goes lower closer to its .618 level. Make sure you have more cash ready lower in case Broadcom starts a bearish sequence lower. 3. $TSM - not at fair value or discounted levels, but it does still look strong to me. Great company, but I would treat it more so as a trade, rather than an investment on my end if you were to buy now. Again, I like buying LOW and selling/trimming HIGH. 4. $SMH ETF - semiconductor ETF still looks strong to me long-term. Can buy any major dips. Right now, the entire industry is in a decision-mode level. Trapped between bulls defending, and bears shorting the bounce. The best thing to do is buy on schedule, every 2 weeks with your paychecks and not worry about short-term volatility.
Peaked
bull
+10.6%
54d
Aug 27
$
TSM
Hot takes across the top semiconductor stocks. 1. $NVDA - I'm already in NVIDIA. But it is NOT at its historical fair value prices or discounted levels right now in my opinion. I will buy in the future if it dips closer to my weekly moving averages. I do NOT buy when price is a premium. I buy at fair value, or discounted areas. I will continue to hold my shares, but won't be adding more exposure. 2. $AVGO - coming down to better fair value levels. 30% drop from its all-time highs. I would be okay buying here, and then buying more if it goes lower closer to its .618 level. Make sure you have more cash ready lower in case Broadcom starts a bearish sequence lower. 3. $TSM - not at fair value or discounted levels, but it does still look strong to me. Great company, but I would treat it more so as a trade, rather than an investment on my end if you were to buy now. Again, I like buying LOW and selling/trimming HIGH. 4. $SMH ETF - semiconductor ETF still looks strong to me long-term. Can buy any major dips. Right now, the entire industry is in a decision-mode level. Trapped between bulls defending, and bears shorting the bounce. The best thing to do is buy on schedule, every 2 weeks with your paychecks and not worry about short-term volatility.
Peaked
bull
+14%
54d
Aug 27
$
SOX
Semiconductors entered their 13th bear market in 31 years last month. That is once every 2.4 years. This is not unusual. This is what semis do. Here is every $SOX crash since 1995 and how long it took to recover: • Asian Crisis: -50%, recovered in 3 months • Trade War 2018: -26%, recovered in 4 months • COVID 2020: -35%, recovered in 4 months • China Shock 2015: -30%, recovered in 6 months • Memory Glut 1995: -45%, recovered in 9 months • Rate Shock 2022: -46%, recovered in 14 months • Carry + Tariffs 2024: -40%, recovered in 3 months • 2026 so far: -20%. The shallowest of all 13 episodes. The median semi bear market drops 37% and lasts 9 months. We are at -20% and 1 month in. The most recent crashes(2018, 2020, 2024) all recovered in 3-4 months. The only one that did not recover quickly was the Dot-Com bust. That took 15 years. But that was an -85% collapse with zero earnings behind it. Today semis have record revenue, record margins, and every company on earth is buying chips for AI. Semis crash. Then they come back. Every single time, in a few months.
Peaked
bull
+10.2%
71d
Aug 10
$
NDX
My goodness... we have a chance. Nasdaq is following the same pattern as 1996, 2003, 2007, and 2013. Here is how those years finished: • 2003: +42.8% • 1996: +40.2% • 2013: +30.8% • 2007: +18.5% 2026 right now: +12.7% YTD In every analog, the second half is where the real move happened. If these patterns rhyme, the Nasdaq has a chance to finish 2026 between +18% and +43%. Still a lot of year left. Earnings, the Fed, and geopolitics will determine which analog we track closest. But the path from here has historically favored the bulls.
Peaked
bull
+5.1%
74d
Aug 7
$
MU
Last week and earlier this week, we've added into names like $UMAC, $ARM, $MRVL, and $MU together. Remember my rules: 1. Buy your favorite technology/speculative stocks whenever $QQQ / $XLK dips -10%. 2. This happens once a year 3. If you do this every year, you will be a multi-millionaire
Peaked
bull
+24.5%
75d
Aug 6
$
ARM
Last week and earlier this week, we've added into names like $UMAC, $ARM, $MRVL, and $MU together. Remember my rules: 1. Buy your favorite technology/speculative stocks whenever $QQQ / $XLK dips -10%. 2. This happens once a year 3. If you do this every year, you will be a multi-millionaire
Peaked
bull
+16.2%
75d
Aug 6
$
XLK
$XLK, which is the technology sector ETF, has a chance. Sellers are getting exhausted, bears are hesitant to short here. They will try to short the relief rally, but selling/shorting here is not in their best interest. https://t.co/QI77FKLacs
Peaked
bull
+15.3%
79d
Aug 2
$
NDX
There is hope in the future. The Nasdaq 100 in 2026 is tracking almost identically to 4 previous years. Here's what was happening in each one and why the pattern rhymes: 1. 2003 (+42.8%). The Iraq War started in March. Oil spiked on geopolitical fear. Tech was hated after the dot com crash with stocks down 80%+. The Nasdaq dropped 7% early in the year on war uncertainty, then rallied relentlessly once the "known unknown" cleared. Sound familiar? Iran/Hormuz is 2026's geopolitical fear premium. AI/semi stocks are down 20 to 50%. The Fed was holding rates at 1.25%, just like the Fed is holding now at 3.50%. 2. 1996 (+40.2%). Election year. The Fed had hiked aggressively in 94 to 95, then paused at 5.25% and held. Tech had a sharp 10 to 15% correction in July on valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals. Then once election clarity arrived, the H2 rally was violent. 32% from the July lows to year end. 2026 is a midterm year with the same "uncertainty then clarity" setup. 3. 2013 (+30.8%). The taper tantrum. Bernanke signaled tapering QE in May, the 10Y yield spiked from 1.6% to 3.0%, everything sold off. But the economy was solid. The pullback was shallow, only 6%, because there was no actual recession. Once the market digested the new rate regime, it rallied 15%+ from the June lows. 2026's tech selloff feels the same. Policy fear creating rotation, but the underlying economy hasn't cracked. 4. 2007 (+18.5%). This is the cautionary analog. Oil surging from $50 to $75 on Middle East tension. Credit cracks surfacing. S&P making new highs while internals deteriorated. The mid-year pattern matches 2026 almost perfectly. But 2007 eventually broke down in 2008. The question for 2026 is whether the AI rotation is a digestive pullback like 2003 and 2013, or early warning like 2007. The common thread: • every one of these years sold off mid-year on a specific fear. War, oil, policy shift, credit. • In 3 out of 4 cases, the fear was manageable and the market rallied hard in H2.
Peaked
bull
+10.4%
79d
Aug 2
$
QQQ
This is an absolutely crazy stat. Someone asked about factoring in oil, bonds, and Japan into the current tech selloff. So I pulled the data for every single time oil surged 10%+ in a month while bonds AND Japan were both negative. There's been 29 times this has happened since 2000. Here's what $QQQ did next: • 1 month: +0.9% median (61% win rate) • 3 months: +4.5% median (75% win rate) • 6 months: +9.8% median (78% win rate) • 1 year: +9.7% median (67% win rate) Also for $SPY: • 1 month: +0.8% median (64% win rate) • 3 months: +2.5% median (75% win rate) • 6 months: +7.3% median (70% win rate) • 1 year: +7.2% median (67% win rate) The near term is choppy. 1 month is basically a coin flip. But 3 months out, 75% win rate for both QQQ and SPY. 6 months out, QQQ averages nearly 10%. You have a 75% chance of being green in 3-months and a year's time.
Peaked
bull
+10.5%
80d
Aug 1
$
ARM
Here's exactly my game plan, and which sectors I'm planning to buy and hold: So far since the start: • Our core portfolio is up +1.77% • $SPY is down -1.10% • $QQQ is down -6.40% • $XLK is down -7.85% • $SMH is down -14.65% Stocks I've bought: 1. I added to my Mag 7 position 2. I bought stocks in the insurance and retail grocery sector - historical compounders that stay strong 3. I bought a few technology stocks like $ARM for the long-term, they are the toll-both of technology Current portfolio: 1. I am staying balanced with Mag 7's, financials, healthcare, software and AI infrastructure stocks 2. I will start to become overweight in technology once a full-low is confirmed on ETFs like SMH, DRAM, and XLK. Let's continue to outperform and rotate into names at lows.
Peaked
bull
+39%
81d
Jul 31
$
XLK
Technology closed red 6 days in a row yesterday. Here's what happened next: • 1 week later: +1.19% median return. 63% win rate. • 1 month later: +2.38% median return. 63% win rate. • 3 months later: +6.66% median return. 68% win rate. • 1 year later: +15.85% median return. 74% win rate. The only times tech was lower a year after a 6 day red streak were during the dot com bust and the financial crisis. Every other time, significantly higher. This is the part that separates the people who make money from the people who don't. The sellers right now are handing their shares to the buyers who will hold them 12 months from now at significantly higher prices. Never be sad or scared. Always be happy you have a chance to change your life.
Peaked
bull
+15.1%
82d
Jul 30
$
AAOI
Photonics stocks are trying to find a low here. $AXTI is finally trying to find a low after 3 months of downtrend. $LITE remains the strongest in my opinion from the photonics sector. $AAOI is trying to find a low as well. $SIVE still weaker like AXTI, but trying. https://t.co/vFOyq3CrpV
Peaked
bull
+42%
97d
Jul 15
$
AXTI
Photonics stocks are trying to find a low here. $AXTI is finally trying to find a low after 3 months of downtrend. $LITE remains the strongest in my opinion from the photonics sector. $AAOI is trying to find a low as well. $SIVE still weaker like AXTI, but trying. https://t.co/vFOyq3CrpV
Peaked
bull
+79.7%
97d
Jul 15
$
XLK
Since we started 6/15/2026: • Our core portfolio +2.32% • $SPY is down -0.36% • $QQQ is down -3.57% • $XLK is down -5.16% Right now, we hold selective Mag 7 names like $AMZN. We also hold healthcare like $ABBV from the lows. And financials like $V from the lows. We added oil companies $CVX last week, and kept our position in $XOM as well. We added some AI names like $CRWV as well recently (down on my position right now). And also holding our rotational winners like $HOOD and $SOFI. What to expect moving forward? 1. I plan to stay balanced as late-cycle rotations, like the one being experienced right now, usually last ~70 days. 2. Once technology can find a proper low, I'll rotate back heavily. 3. Until then, staying patient and will slowly buy the dip. What I plan to buy in the future: 1. For the core portfolio, I am eye'ing entries on $MU 2. Also looking at medical supply companies 3. And food, beverage, and apparel like $ANF, $LULU, $DECK, etc. Overall, I expect some tech weakness short-term. But this is only temporary in my opinion. I think once tech finds a low, tech will see 10%+ recovery days. Stay patient!
Peaked
bear
+8.1%
99d
Jul 13
$
UBER
We are in software stocks, like $DDOG, $UBER, $SHOP, and others. ETF for software that I also like is $IGV. It's been a strong trade for us as its trying to find a low in the overall sector. It's also been the opposite trade of the AI-trade. When AI goes down, sofwatre goes up. I think having both AI and software/laggards will help throughout these choppy times in the summer.
Peaked
bull
+8.2%
99d
Jul 13
$
GDX
Gold and silver miners like $HL, $NEM, $CDE and ETF like $GDX. They've been beaten down the last few months, but looking better now. Consolidation after a huge uptrend. The trend is your friend. https://t.co/B6BFrycNEd
Peaked
bull
+34%
106d
Jul 6
$
CDE
Gold and silver miners like $HL, $NEM, $CDE and ETF like $GDX. They've been beaten down the last few months, but looking better now. Consolidation after a huge uptrend. The trend is your friend. https://t.co/B6BFrycNEd
Peaked
bull
+30.7%
106d
Jul 6
$
NEM
Gold and silver miners like $HL, $NEM, $CDE and ETF like $GDX. They've been beaten down the last few months, but looking better now. Consolidation after a huge uptrend. The trend is your friend. https://t.co/B6BFrycNEd
Peaked
bull
+37.6%
106d
Jul 6
$
HL
Gold and silver miners like $HL, $NEM, $CDE and ETF like $GDX. They've been beaten down the last few months, but looking better now. Consolidation after a huge uptrend. The trend is your friend. https://t.co/B6BFrycNEd
Peaked
bull
+30.2%
106d
Jul 6
$
COP
$XOM $CVX $OXY $COP After 5 years of sideways, oil and energy stocks broke out earlier this year. They have pulled back since, and now retesting critical areas. Good dividends, and hedges in case markets turn weird. https://t.co/CC5omgKiuT
Peaked
bull
+35.7%
110d
Jul 2
$
OXY
$XOM $CVX $OXY $COP After 5 years of sideways, oil and energy stocks broke out earlier this year. They have pulled back since, and now retesting critical areas. Good dividends, and hedges in case markets turn weird. https://t.co/CC5omgKiuT
Peaked
bull
+30.5%
110d
Jul 2
$
RSP
From 2004 to 2024, $RSP beat $SPY. Healthy market and broad participation. Then AI happened, a very NARROW rally. $SPY went from trailing $RSP by 80 points to LEADING by 64 points. The BIGGEST gap in history. But that gap is starting to CLOSE. $RSP is outperforming $SPY in 2026 for the first time since 2022. Every time this happened before, the catch up was fast: 1. Post Nifty Fifty: small caps +35% annualized for a decade 2. Post dot com: Russell 2000 $IWM +47% in year one 3. Post COVID: value and small caps led the rotation What to do now: 1. Start scaling into sectors that have been left BEHIND 2. Healthcare, industrials, financials, and mid caps historically LEAD when breadth WIDENS Do not dump the Mag 7 or large-cap tech. But start BALANCING into names that have been ignored. The broadening has started. History says it accelerates from here.
Peaked
bull
+5.5%
114d
Jun 28
$
AAPL
This is what Mag 7s typically do for the REST of the YEAR during a mid-term year. Here's what happens - and why: 1. $AAPL (+13.8%): the king of the second half • iPhone launch cycle (announced Sep, ships Oct) gives it a built-in CATALYST right when the post-midterm rally kicks in • plus Apple's buyback PROGRAM puts a floor under the stock during the weak months 2. $NVDA (+12.3%) - the surprise second-half performer • semiconductor capex gets PAUSED in the first half when businesses get nervous • but once midterm uncertainty clears, that pent-up demand SNAPS back hard in Q3/Q4 • the second half is where NVDA makes ALL of its midterm year gains 3. $MSFT (+9.0%) - the steady grinder that accelerates late • nobody cancels their Microsoft licenses during political uncertainty • but the real move comes Oct-Dec when enterprise budgets get DEPLOYED before year-end • reliable, boring, and quietly one of the best H2 performers 4. $AMZN (+2.8%) - modest but positive • the second half brings holiday spending which LIFTS the retail side • AWS capex concerns ease as enterprises stop deferring cloud spend • not exciting, but at least it stops bleeding 5. $GOOGL (+1.8%) - barely positive • SMB ad budgets start to RECOVER post-midterm but it's slow • regulatory headlines tend to FADE after elections • gets back to flat but don't expect fireworks 6. $META (-6.6%) - the second-half disappointment • despite strong digital ad trends, META tends to GIVE BACK gains in H2 • earnings volatility keeps Wall Street nervous — one miss and it gets PUNISHED • the wild swings that help in H1 work AGAINST it when sentiment shifts 7. $TSLA (-11.0%) - the worst of the group • big-ticket consumer discretionary SUFFERS as midterm anxiety lingers • Tesla trades on SENTIMENT more than fundamentals • historically the one to AVOID in the second half of midterm years The takeaway heading into the second half of 2026: $AAPL and $NVDA are the clear WINNERS - both averaging double-digit gains from July through December. If you're heavy in $META or $TSLA, consider OFFSETTING potential weakness with stocks in healthcare, industrials, and financials. They will do MUCH better in 2027.
Peaked
bull
+19.7%
115d
Jun 27
$
XBI
My dear followers. Here are my latest moves: Since I started my challenge from $100K to $4M: 1. $SPY down -2.72% 2. $QQQ down -3.71% 3. Core portfolio (safer) is up +0.35% 4. 10X portfolio (riskier) is down -0.63% I am so HAPPY how well we've been holding up together, despite the markets weak and choppy. Buys: 1. Initiated buy on industrial stocks 2. Initiated buy on biotechnology stocks 3. Added to already existing healthcare positions Sells: 1. Reduced exposure in downtrending names, like software - still in some software names 2. Sold downtrending stocks, only looking at the best uptrending stocks.
Peaked
bull
+9.1%
116d
Jun 26
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