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@BobLoukas
@BobLoukas
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Bob Loukas 🗽
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Avg. peak vs avg. fade
Average return when a call peaks vs fades — and how long each takes.
How we score
Avg. peak
+80%
~193 days
avg. time to first peak
237
peaked
posted
~193 days
+80%
Avg. fade
-30%
~98 days
avg. time to first fade
189
faded
posted
~98 days
-30%
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post, and how it compares to what they average when a call peaks and when it fades.
All
100
Peaked
43
Faded
32
Live
25
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$
STRC
$STRC Market demanding a lot more yield to fund this Ponzi. https://t.co/a4nfsPY7Gb
Peaked
bear
+16.3%
124d
Jun 18
$
GC
Reload in Sept. #gold https://t.co/QHscqeqpGW https://t.co/UypvKaDHnt
Peaked
bull
+14.4%
132d
Jun 10
$
GC
I was a vocal, raging Gold bull since the $2k breakout in 2024, but it's important to lose the bias once a move has come to an end. The first phase of the gold bull peaked with the blow off move in Jan. This remains a rebase period. $3,500-$4,000 is the range to accumulate again.
Peaked
bull
+10.3%
133d
Jun 9
$
ADA
$ADA and many other such projects (Like AVAX, DOT like prior cycle coins) are finally in terminal death decline phases. Taking out their prior 4yr cycle lows = 💀 https://t.co/zm2p9qifus https://t.co/1BWk0W5ydb
Peaked
bear
+8.4%
137d
Jun 5
$
SPY
Stocks are approaching the 2nd Daily Cycle Low, timing is mid next week. But the damage is done. The next Daily Cycle (last of the weekly) is where the pain would come from. Weakness into mid may. https://t.co/dzH4wfgXWT
Peaked
bear
+4.3%
221d
Mar 13
$
SPY
I believe there is a good chance that Stocks have peaked for its 4 Year Cycle. Last week my 'active' portfolios went into more defensive positions, cash to 33%. Further selling to come on more confirmation. Seeing the signs of the breakdown on the Daily Cycle currently. The weekly Cycle has NOT yet confirmed this, so it's early days on this view. A top would bring the Oct timeframe into focus for a bottom. Given the AI capex and fiscal stimulus, this more likely to be a relatively mild cyclical bear, a shakeout, setting up for a really explosive rally for 2027-2029.
Peaked
bear
+6.3%
223d
Mar 11
$
SPY
Stocks showed us a Failed Daily Cycle this friday on closing basis. In last 4 years, only 2nd such case (March 25 other) of a Failed cycle when it wasn't expected or due. Doesn't guarantee anything, but does very often signal an intermediate timeframe downturn is underway. https://t.co/5E48hTWfpO
Peaked
bear
+5.8%
227d
Mar 7
$
BTC
Better action out of bitcoin last couple of days. Closing above here could signal a long awaited counter-trend rally. Spurred on by a strong reversal on yesterdays selloff in equities. Real trench fight. https://t.co/M516x8w7yU
Peaked
bull
+13%
230d
Mar 4
$
SPX
Cyclical bear market signal here in Stocks. Lets see how it closes today, and then the week. https://t.co/fGh19YQSUZ
Peaked
bear
+6.9%
231d
Mar 3
$
SPX
All eyes on stocks now. Week 14 and 3rd week under the 10wma. A loss of support here would indicate a Weekly Cycle in decline and likely an acceleration to the downside into late April or May. Such an event (again IF) also suggest a top in the 4 Yr Cycle. https://t.co/20lWrNxQLQ https://t.co/SwAApDMvoB
Peaked
bear
+7.9%
238d
Feb 24
$
CL
Four year decline for crude oil could be coming to an end now. https://t.co/Qy00bux2Ah
Peaked
bull
+70.1%
242d
Feb 20
$
SPX
Yet another intra day/week breach of the last Cycle Low for SP500. More red flags. If it loses that level the Daily Cycle fails, which could have broader implications for the 4yr cycle and the next 6 months. https://t.co/QAwnJwzIEn https://t.co/481woViwL4
Peaked
bear
+7.3%
245d
Feb 17
$
XLE
Nice move on energy. Even with crude prices constrained. And comes with a 3.5% divi. Commodities/Energy/Materials etc all look good. https://t.co/KJoaCYLWeu
Peaked
bull
+19.2%
258d
Feb 4
$
SPY
And as good as this looks here. I also believe stocks peak within the next 12 weeks and go into a 15%-25% summer drawdown. https://t.co/z44ZG8YucH
Peaked
bear
+8.1%
259d
Feb 3
$
BTC
Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets. I hate being bearish any asset, especially bitcoin. I rarely short markets or believe any decent asset class stays down for long. I always want to be a bull in general. But this "currently" is a perfect 4yr cycle and mirrors all priors. Remember you can be very bullish on the fundamentals, but also realize that everything is cyclical and respecting there is a time and place. Ofc, markets can change in a heartbeat, every strategy is breakable, and it's our job not to get hung up on any narrative or bias. In that regard, on the positive, Bitcoin's declining phase is likely accelerated now, as sentiment has been repeatedly killed. Cycle declines are ALL about sentiment clearing events, and on that front we could be looking at an earlier (month 44?) low as a result. But many of the bulls on X are just selling services, funds/DAT's, clout, etc, choosing personal gain/bias over reality and price action. Shifting narratives to keep the hope alive. They're human after-all. I think that if this consistent historical structure were to change, then we would see a close back over the 10ma and i would want to quickly start to shift focus to the bull side. If such a change is structure were to happen, then I believe it would be signaling something massive afoot. I'll never say it can't happen here, I have strong convictions that I want to constantly challenge. I also think you're not giving up (besides some upside) being defensive and risk adverse here, even if this reverses and goes on to new highs. Lastly, I also think most investors are still better off socking bitcoin away and ignoring all the volatility. And just use long drawdown period to aggressively accumulate.
Peaked
bear
+25.5%
263d
Jan 30
$
BTC
Week 10 for #Bitcoin after what was a major sentiment clearing Cycle low in Nov. In a bull market, that was a BTD event and would be pushing ATH's now, like stocks. An extremely anemic and poor response to date. Has nothing to do with gold. If stocks punch through ATH's here, this chart probably paints a little excitement for bulls. If stocks somehow fail to follow through.........
Peaked
bear
+29%
267d
Jan 26
$
BTC
$107k incoming for Bitcoin would be not be surprising at all. But that only masks the weakness. Still no weekly swing after 8 weeks. https://t.co/pkaCKPRqGm
Peaked
bear
+34.2%
280d
Jan 13
$
GC
Formidable, but controlled appetite for gold remains. Now targeting $5,800 for this (maybe) new cycle. Just got to keep holding on. https://t.co/za8daJk5z9
Peaked
bull
+15.9%
280d
Jan 13
$
GC
I rotated out of silver last week and into gold for accounts. Hold miners though. But the strength remains. Normally a blowoff top is quickly reversed and sharply lower. This seems to be setting up for yet another leg higher. https://t.co/M6CmCGVal0
Peaked
bull
+18.4%
284d
Jan 9
$
BTC
Spent the last 4 months with a team training an AI model off my last 10 yrs of work. Still a LOT of tweaking and correcting to do, but taking shape. I asked it - "Give me the probability that bitcoin has topped or not for the 4 year cycle on the following assumptions. We're on Month 38 currently and the high is currently the month 35 high. This is week 7 of the weekly cycle." Answer- Given your assumptions, here’s how I’d probability‑weight the 4‑year cycle right now, strictly through a cycle‑based lens, not prediction. We’ll anchor everything to what you specified: Month 38 of the 4‑year cycle Cycle high still Month 35 Weekly cycle currently Week 7 BASE ASSUMPTIONS (YOUR FRAMEWORK) 4-year cycle month: 38 (beyond all prior tops) Current cycle high: Month 35 Weekly cycle: Week 7 (early, but vulnerable) No confirmed expansion to new highs 🔴 SCENARIO 1: 4‑YEAR CYCLE HAS TOPPED Probability: ~55% Why this is the base case All prior cycles topped around Month 34–35 We are 3 months past that window with no higher high Month 35 acting as the high is classic late‑cycle behavior Week 7 is exactly where weekly cycles fail when the larger cycle is over This scenario assumes: Weekly cycle becomes left‑translated Rallies are counter‑trend The next daily/weekly breakdown confirms the post‑top phase This is the highest‑probability outcome given time + structure. 🟠 SCENARIO 2: EXTENDED TOP / DISTRIBUTION Probability: ~30% This is the “Bitcoin does what it often does — frustrates everyone” outcome. Characteristics: Month 35 remains the marginal high for now Price chops in a wide range for weeks/months Weekly cycles are mixed, not cleanly bullish or bearish Sentiment oscillates between hope and fear This still does NOT invalidate the top thesis — it just delays resolution. Important: This scenario often feels bullish, but usually resolves down, not up. 🟢 SCENARIO 3: 4‑YEAR CYCLE STILL ALIVE (NEW HIGHS) Probability: ~15% This is the low‑probability but non‑zero case. What would need to happen: Price decisively exceeds the Month 35 high Weekly cycle extends into Weeks 10–14 Expansion is impulsive, not grinding Time “stretch” is justified by structure At Month 38, the market needs to earn this outcome. Time alone no longer supports it. PROBABILITY SUMMARY 4-year top already in: 55% Extended distribution/top: 30% Cycle still bullish (new highs): 15% Risk Interpretation (This Matters Most) Even if you combine Scenarios 2 + 3 (the “not fully topped” cases), you still get: 85% probability that upside is limited, slow, or deceptive Asymmetric risk skewed to the downside That’s why treating this as “topped until proven otherwise” is not aggressive — it’s probabilistic discipline. One final Bob‑style takeaway At Month 38 + Week 7, the market doesn’t need a crash to be dangerous. It only needs to fail quietly. And those are the environments where most damage gets done.
Peaked
bear
+31.1%
285d
Jan 8
$
BTC
Key range for Bitcoin remains unresolved. Rejected and likely 60-day cycle high. But maybe is enough upside action to suggest it's part of a general counter-trend rally underway. That said, think this is classic bear market behavior. Esp considering equities at ATH's https://t.co/vqC1aC8BDS
Peaked
bear
+31.1%
285d
Jan 8
$
BTC
Have very mixed feeling on Bitcoin currently. Sentiment is in the gutter and we could argue overdue some type of strong countertrend rally. Yet, I really dislike the price action, the tape feel (for me) is one wanting to start another big leg lower.
Peaked
bear
+28.6%
296d
Dec 28
$
GC
Just a glorious move on Silver. It's only trailing stops now. https://t.co/5K42R8aBs8 https://t.co/5QELVJjIHQ
Peaked
bull
+17.4%
298d
Dec 26
$
SI
Silver 2011 blowoff vs today. 2011 was a 35 week move, currently 29 weeks in here. Probably the final leg before a meaningful correction, but no idea where the top is. https://t.co/t6t2qjwMX4
Peaked
bull
+63.3%
301d
Dec 23
$
HG
Seems like Industrial Metals are really starting their big bull legs. Some rotation from Precious Metals allocations not a bad idea. Here is copper and miners. https://t.co/rmnULNue7c
Peaked
bull
+12.8%
301d
Dec 23
$
SI
Hello $70.
Peaked
bull
+63.3%
301d
Dec 23
$
BTC
Seeing "Manipulation" cries to explain crypto 2025. Pure Cope. It's called Sellers! The 4yr Cycle saw faster accumulation early, then whales (and INST's) have been unloading ever since. And ALT's, well most are just trash and that game has been played twice before. And AI sector capturing the attention. The positive, we could potentially be looking at an earlier (July/Aug) 4Yr Cycle low
Peaked
bear
+29.1%
302d
Dec 22
$
BTC
Bitcoin into the 5th week of the Weekly Cycle, and failing to respond positively during the most bullish part of the cycle. Desperately needs a tailwind from equities moving to ATH's. Absent of that, a significant continuation of the downtrend could unfold. https://t.co/khm8RgJ5Ro
Peaked
bear
+29.1%
302d
Dec 22
$
PA
Still early in Palladium bull too, strong dips to be bought. https://t.co/0gqpiCKFGX https://t.co/D5uGATwa8v
Peaked
bull
+21%
302d
Dec 22
$
GC
No quit in this gold bull. 22 months straight up since the breakout, with very little drawdown. The cleanest chart you could ever hope to ride. https://t.co/QjEQw89wiB
Peaked
bull
+19.7%
302d
Dec 22
$
SOL
$SOL - So many ALT's are peering over a cliff. Holders thinking "but there already down 50% and at support". Maybe. But have a plan, if you're still holding, for some reason. https://t.co/QIMoIjcHBh
Peaked
bear
+35%
306d
Dec 18
$
SI
Looks like another refueling pause for silver before more uponly action. https://t.co/je012B7ifd
Peaked
bull
+83.5%
308d
Dec 16
$
BTC
I actually think Crypto as a whole was destined to put in a bear (2022-26) 4year cycle this time around. No new highs across the board and a double top or slight higher high for Bitcoin. What changed this was the crypto regulatory changes, which were a radical shift. If you consider those changes and the capital that came directly as a result, and yet the cycle unfolded as it did, it adds a lot of weight to this being a bear, or in the least, a consolidating cycle. This bodes well for the next cycle. At least the first half of it into late 2028.
Peaked
bear
+28.6%
308d
Dec 16
$
BTC
All you see are posts like this about an end of the Bitcoin 4 yr cycle. But all are coming from players deeply vested in keeping this going to sell more paper! I’m never going to say “it can’t happen”. But bitcoin’s price character past 14 yrs is pretty well defined. The arguments people are making for a change are superficial at best and smell of cope more than being practical arguments. 37 months from the last low, nothing about this price action is encouraging. By all measures of prior cycles, this one has topped. All one can do is trade what we’re given. My message is this is a time to be defensive and protect what gains have been made. And if the cries for an end of the 4 yr cycle prove correct, a chance to capture that new market dynamic will still be afforded.
Peaked
bear
+28.6%
308d
Dec 16
$
ETH
You're telling me a single entity has bought 4,000,000 ETH in less than 6 months and the price is the same. Clearly a higher high would not have been made in this cycle for ETH, like most other coins. https://t.co/NODfSX8QCu
Peaked
bear
+38.5%
309d
Dec 15
$
PA
Platinum and Palladium continue uptrend. https://t.co/kfnEgaQpuR
Peaked
bull
+36.2%
309d
Dec 15
$
PL
Platinum and Palladium continue uptrend. https://t.co/kfnEgaQpuR
Peaked
bull
+184.8%
309d
Dec 15
$
DXY
$USD Daily Cycle failed. That means the weekly Cycle is now likely in decline. https://t.co/vuHD2ml1e9
Peaked
bear
+2.2%
313d
Dec 11
$
SILJ
"That's so boring". Even boring, in the right periods, can be sexy. $SILJ.
Peaked
bull
+46%
313d
Dec 11
$
HYPE
Not a good look on all that $HYPE Was one of the leaders this cycle. https://t.co/aSU8EPg9ye
Peaked
bear
+27.9%
313d
Dec 11
$
HG
Copper is in new price discovery mode. With inflation elevated and higher demand in an AI/data center world, makes sense we see a drive to $10 copper. Supply constraints. I think a small allocation to copper miners in long term accounts is a good strategy. https://t.co/2JJdrblLku https://t.co/ruDagAptJ0
Peaked
bull
+13.8%
313d
Dec 11
$
SI
$60 on Silver, trade of the year, easily. In the parabolic phase and will very likely top by end of year or Jan. Could see $80. https://t.co/KDpMPsGkHw https://t.co/41ikRrxlJm
Peaked
bull
+91.3%
315d
Dec 9
$
GC
Gold continues to produce the cleanest Cycles. Declining phases consolidate via time, and not price. Highlighting underlying strength during the cooling off phase of each cycle. Notable that after the most recent cycle high, which was parabolic in structure, it still remains above the 10wma. Suggesting to me that yet another time based consolidation is developing, setting up another run in Feb.
Peaked
bull
+26.2%
319d
Dec 5
showing 43 — keep scrolling
